Vacant Land for New Construction: How Much Is Left?

By Bill Primavera

The Home Guru

The most frequently heard aphorism about vacant land, especially in our area, is that when it’s gone, they can’t make anymore. The first time I was aware of this phrase was when I read an article in The New York Times more than 20 years ago that assured readers that our area still had vacant land available, as much as 10 percent of the total landscape in Westchester at the time, which could account for as many as 30,000 parcels and as many as 20,000 parcels in Putnam.  But a lot has happened in real estate since that time. What’s the score now?

Thomas (“Tommy”) Santore, a buddy of mine at Coldwell Banker who knows more about vacant land in upper Westchester and Putnam than any other realtor I know, recently repeated that phrase to me with a slight twist: “God isn’t going to make any more,” he said. Tommy has probably represented and sold more vacant land in the 14 years of his real estate career (he’s had a few careers like me) than anyone else. If not, he’s way up there.

A short time ago, he asked me to help him develop his branding message for his practice (one of my side gigs as a marketing consultant) and when he told me that he specialized in vacant land, I thought, aren’t we a lot closer to the realization that we may soon be out of inventory?  Remember, we’ve had a major housing boom since that Times’ article and, at the same time, most towns in our area have greater restrictions on land development.  When I questioned Tommy about how much could be left, he assured me that it was still a healthy market segment and that the current state of the industry is fostering a new appeal that is just about to take off.

“There are still many properties that are available but no one really knows a solid number,” Tommy says.  But very quickly, he did a search through the tax records of undeveloped land in the two counties and came up with the following sampling of availability, noting that the number of vacant parcels accelerates as one travels north:  Armonk: 35 parcels; Pleasantville, 132;  Mount Kisco, 201; Yorktown, 595; Mahopac, 240; and Putnam Valley, 1, 937.

Of course, there are many more thousands of parcels because our counties are so large with many more towns, “but nobody really knows how much land is buildable because assessors collect taxes on vacant parcels, but they don’t do engineering studies to determine whether they can actually be developed,” Tommy explains.

In my town, Yorktown, where there was some hesitation about the sewer plant being expanded to accommodate the famous “1,000 unsewered,” there was some concern among conservationists that an expansion would lead to unbridled new development. This fear was abated by the then-supervisor who said that we probably had only 100 lots left in town that were suitable for development. So, as a guestimate, if we have 595 vacant parcels on the books, just do the math of what percentage of land is buildable.

Also complicating the estimate is that we must assume that a percentage is able to be subdivided. In Yorktown, for instance, one parcel was recently sold in the upper end of town where the property was subdivided and 22 single family houses are currently being built.

When Tommy got into the specialty of representing and selling vacant land, it represented a career change from his former jobs in construction where he had clients who wanted to build homes and needed land to do so.  At that time, in 1996, just after a housing slump, a one-acre, level lot in Putnam Valley would have sold for $50,000. During the great boom experienced in this decade, that price accelerated as high as $200,000, but since the recent slump, that asking price has decreased to about $130,000.

The traditional view prior to the housing boom was that a new home could be built cheaper than one already built. “The bad news during the housing boom was that land got so expensive and building costs accelerated so much that it became too expensive to build new,” Tommy says.  “Now, the equation has changed considerably. Vacant land is more reasonably priced and people are starting to look for it again, just during this last quarter.

But the work involved to get approval can be a quagmire. “Four years ago, people were buying land with no contingencies all the time. Now, the buyer wants assurance that property can be built on. Because town assessors don’t evaluate a property, they tax it as though it’s a buildable lot and, because of this, vacant land is the most overtaxed property there is!”

Following that statement up with an unexpected turn, Tommy says, “But if they don’t tax it that way, your house taxes are going to go up.

“Other issues that make approval more difficult,” he continues, “are upgraded environmental requirements, slope consideration, upzoning and the jobs that people have to do who serve in building departments and on the boards of towns where the decisions are made.”

While Tommy provides a litany of problems he’s encountered in seeking approvals for his clients in various towns, he admits that there have been many times when he went to bat for clients and the towns were on his side. He cited an example where a town had changed zoning on a parcel of land from commercial to residential just when he had found a buyer who wanted it as a commercial property. In working cooperatively with the town, he was able to stay the re-zoning of the parcel.

And what happens, I ask, when we DO indeed run out of vacant land in our region?   “Simple, we start buying houses, tearing them down and building new, larger ones” is Tommy’s logical answer.

Bottom line on vacant land today:  Yes, there is still enough left, and Thomas Santore advises that this is an historic time to buy. “Building costs have leveled off and land prices have fallen to new lows, so it’s a good time to invest in it. And remember,” he repeats, “God isn’t going to make any more.”

Bill Primavera is a licensed Realtor® (PrimaveraHomes.com), affiliated with Coldwell Banker, and a marketing practitioner (PrimaveraPR.com). He can be emailed at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it or reached directly at 914-522-2076.

Follow him on Twitter for housing market updates at Twitter/HomeGuruNY.