The Home Guru

Forecasting the Start of the Turnaround in 2011. Yeah!

 

 

By Bill Primavera

The Home Guru

Will Rogers used to say that all he knew was what he read in the newspapers.  But, how do the newspapers know? As the journalist for this column, I know by listening to other people who are good at rounding up information and making sense of it when analyzing the condition of the housing market.

When realtors sound so smart to their clients about the state of the market today and what’s coming down the pike, they usually have the backup of a good managing broker, part of whose job it is to make us look good by examining all the information from industry sources and packaging it in such a way that we can digest it and pass it on to our buyers and sellers.

In my office the one we rely on for this service is Joe Monaco who heads up Coldwell Banker in Yorktown. Just prior to the release of the end-of-2010 report from the region’s Multiple Listing Service, he presented his agents with a projection of what to expect in 2011. 

Appearing on the same day as this article is published, the MLS report will tell us in no small amount of statistical detail how 2010 ended up. Monaco’s short assessment of the year past was simply: “I’m glad to see it go!  As glad as I was to see 2009 go!” 

That said, Monaco continued on a more upbeat note, which is his usual bent, saying, “but we did all right, considering the economic environment, and if the prices of homes were on target and the buyers were motivated.”

Then, from his analysis of forecasts for 2011 from real estate pundits, Monaco listed those points of which we should be aware in the coming year.

First, it is the general consensus among observers nationwide that the market will be softer in the first six months of the year compared with the same period last year, which was boosted by tax credits.  Also, prices should continue to decline, but at a much slower pace.  While the slide in house prices in our area was as much as 20 percent in just the last two years, that decline should slow to another five to eight percent by mid-year, then level off.  

Distressed sales will continue to grow, with pockets of real alarm, such as in Florida where the number is as high as 70 percent currently. In our region, however, the picture is vastly different in that only 12 percent are short sales or foreclosures. But still, 12 percent is 12 percent.

Mortgage rates will remain low but will gradually rise from the current high four percent rates to the low five percent rates. 

A key element in 2011 will be affordability. Because house prices have dropped so significantly, real estate taxes in our area seem out of whack to home values. But, that concern among buyers is abated when they realize that higher taxes tend to deflate home prices and that purchases remain affordable from the standpoint of the monthly payment of mortgage, tax and insurance.

New mortgage options will start to appear. While FHA loans requiring only 3 percent down were stigmatized in the past, that’s not the case anymore.  In fact, besides these government backed loans, there is now a new conventional mortgage where only three percent down is required. While the mortgage insurance is a bit higher for these loans, they offer another option for affordability.

An element of major concern will be government regulatory requirements which can create risk aversion among investors. Corporations have lots of cash building up but are standing on the sidelines instead of investing it because they don’t yet have confidence in the regulations coming out of Washington.  How the government responds this year to the housing crisis will dictate whether investors will let go of their purse strings.

New home sales will continue to be affected by having to compete with a higher inventory of re-sales.  Many developers, even in this area, got stuck with buying land at the height of the market at a price that set the bar for the cost of housing to be built on it.  Because the cost for bricks and mortar is somewhat fixed, developers have very little room right now to build and make a profit.  In our area, some announced developments have been sitting dormant because a builder doesn’t want to build and not make money.

The wrap-up of predictions for 2011 ended on a positive note, as reported by Monaco. By the second half of the year, the real estate industry will see the beginning of a turnaround based on the assumption that the job market will improve, and this has already begun.

The bottom line is that more people will buy again when they feel more secure about their job prospects. So, bring on the jobs!

 Bill Primavera is a licensed Realtor® (PrimaveraHomes.com), affiliated with Coldwell Banker, and a marketing practitioner (PrimaveraPR.com). Anyone considering selling or buying a home can reach him directly at 914-522-2076.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Roof Ice Dams, Damned Nuisance, Must Be Addressed

 

By Bill Primavera

The Home Guru

 

When I moved from the city to a home in the suburbs, I really enjoyed our first winter of heavy snow. I remember that when I build a snow man for my four-year old daughter, it stayed clean, fresh and white, rather than being speckled with black soot like the one I had built the year before in Brooklyn.

I also remember looking up at the roof line on the northern side of my house and admiring the icicles hanging from the fascia and gutters, thinking that they added interest to the wintry scene, much like a perfect Currier and Ives print.

Little did I know, naïve as I was as a homeowner at that time, that icicles were a byproduct of an ice dam, that winter roof phenomenon that can cause leakage into the house, damaging insulation, ceilings and walls.  And that’s exactly what happened to me, in a year full of surprises as the new owner of an antique house. 

I’ve since learned that ice dams form in a complex interaction resulting from heat loss from a house, snow cover and outside temperature. What happens is that snow on the upper part of the roof, where the temperature might be above 32 degrees F, melts and flows down to the lower part of the roof where the temperature might be below 32 degrees, and there it freezes to form the ice dam.

The dam continues to grow while the water trapped behind it finds cracks and openings in the exterior roof covering, dripping into the attic space and, from there, flowing into the exterior walls and ceiling. It can be a mess. 

The solution is complicated because a number of factors can contribute to the possibility of ice dams, including exhaust systems that come from our bathrooms and kitchens, recessed lights, skylights, complicated roof designs, and heating ducts in the attic.

Once an ice dam happens there is little that can be done for an immediate remedy. Trying to break the ice dam physically can do more damage than the dam itself.  That first year, one well-meaning neighbor suggested that, next time it snowed, I should physically remove the snow from the north side of my roof with a roof rake and push broom. Sure thing, I thought, all I have to do is climb on the roof when it’s snowing. That suicidal I’m not.

Another possibility is to make channels through the ice dam where water can run through them to the ground. But that too can be a dangerous proposition.

On many homes you see electric cables along the ridge of the roof and, while some roofers say they may be dangerous if the wires wear thin, several homeowners who have them have told me that they work fine and, at less than $1.00 a linear foot, make a cheap and quick fix. But that doesn’t fix the problem long term.

If you have the problem, the best long-term action is to call in a contractor who should check to see that your ceiling is air-tight so that no warm, moist air can flow from the house into the attic space.  After that, it can help to increase the ceiling/roof insulation to cut down on heat loss by conduction.  That’s what I did and it worked.

If you live in a relatively new home, you’re probably the beneficiary of state codes for proper ceiling/roof insulation levels that all but eliminate the possibility of an ice dam. Or, if you live in a house with a high-pitched roof, the problem is less likely to occur.

But if you are a homeowner with a lower-pitched roof and you see that ominous build-up of ice and icicles, call in a contractor to assess the situation and address it.

In the meantime, if you experience leakage from an ice dam into your house this winter, wait until the ceiling and walls have totally dried out before you attempt any repair work. But, more importantly, interior repair should be done in concert with correcting the heat loss problem that created the ice dam in the first place or the damage will occur again.    

Bill Primavera is a licensed Realtor® (PrimaveraHomes.com), affiliated with Coldwell Banker, and a marketing practitioner (PrimaveraPR.com). Anyone considering selling or buying a home can reach him directly at 914-522-2076.

 

 

Want to Escape the Recession Blues? Think Pink!

 

By Bill Primavera

The Home Guru

 

After enduring the “blues” of a battered economy for the past few years, enduring “black” moods because  many of us find ourselves in the “red,” or  perhaps we’re “green” with envy of those doing better than we, why shouldn’t it seem appropriate to utilize the color metaphor to feel “in the pink” again? Specifically, with the color pink?

Physiologists and color psychologists say that pink in our living environment enhances mood and even improves our health, creating calm, feelings of security and actually lowering blood pressure. And, just recently, The New York Times’ Home Section anointed the re-introduction of pink into our bathrooms, long banished since its heyday in the 1950s. 

It’s funny because, from the time I got into the real estate business, any bathroom with pink tile and fixtures was considered dated and a problem to be remedied by a new buyer. But, now some house hunters are again seeking that retro look from the slaphappy days of the 1950s when bathroom fixture manufacturers first learned to mix color into porcelain and went craziest with pink.  And if retro isn’t to their taste, new surface materials, tiles and glass, are again available in pink.

In the 1990s, we embraced the confident boldness of such hues as Tuscan gold and Burgundy, right up to the early 2000s when our color choices retreated into the uncertainly of the recession with the tepid beiges and pale greens. Now we seem to want to color ourselves out of the neutrals and embrace pink once again as an antidote to the times.

The restorative powers attributed to pink have been out there for some time. Remember the stories of the prison wardens in several states who were experimenting with painting prison cells pink and even dressing inmates in pink prison garb? One jailer said that the color was chosen not to humiliate inmates by feminizing them, but to promote calm and make violence less likely. 

Now pink is also being used more in hospitals, dentists’ offices and even in male locker rooms, such as at Iowa State University.

Not only does pink resonate with our feelings of well being, but the color reflects light in a very flattering way to inhabitants of a room. Note all the restaurants interiors painted pink? And, it’s no secret why Broadway Babies always insisted on pink follow spots.

I have been a fan of pink for many years, sometimes enduring sarcasm about it from some of my buddies. I was most likely influenced by the prominent use of that color in my childhood home.  My mother told me that immediately after World War II, when she was a young girl, there was a trend that focused on the color pink, both in fashion and décor.  So, when my parents bought their first new home in 1954 and were given the choice of color bathroom fixtures, my mother selected pink. She didn’t stop with the bathroom, but extended the color’s use to our living room and dining room as well.  A smile crosses my mind now when I view my own living room, painted pink, with mauve draperies and a Sheraton sofa covered with pale pink damask.

In America, we have been attracted to pink for centuries.  When I was a summer fellowship intern at Historic Deerfield in Massachusetts, a living museum village with homes from the 1700s and 1800s, my favorite room in any of the buildings was one with walls colored a delicate pink, which I was told was created by mixing brick dust directly into the plaster. And in my own home, on the inside of one of the doors in a saltbox wing from the 1730s, is the original paint, a rosy pink color created, I’m surmising, from ox blood and milk, a technique employed at that time.

Today we don’t have to mix our own pink shades to achieve better health and spirit. Just check out the Benjamin Moore palette of pinks ranging in all shades and whimsical names to match any mood, from the fun Pink Popsicle, Bubblegum and Pink Cadillac to  loftier shades called Paradise Pink and Pink Cloud.

Whether earthly or heavenly in shade, pink is definitely a color not to be overlooked, especially in grey times. 

Bill Primavera is a licensed Realtor® (PrimaveraHomes.com), affiliated with Coldwell Banker, and a marketing practitioner (PrimaveraPR.com). Anyone considering selling or buying a home can reach him directly at 914-522-2076.

   

Remodeling on the Rise, But Which Project Is Best?

 

By Bill Primavera

The Home Guru

In the past month, several contractors and architects have told me that their remodeling projects are on the rise and, actually, are on a higher level than in the heady days of real estate before the recession.

Who’s engaging all this work?  Two markets: home owners who have decided to stay put for a while and want to upgrade for themselves, and home sellers who want to beat out the considerable competition in getting their homes sold.

Of help to those in either category is an annual survey that ranks those remodeling projects that are most preferred for their resale value, making the greatest sense in terms of recouping costs. Conducted by Remodeling Magazine among realtors in 80 cities, the results are reported in the January issue of Realtor Magazine, published by the National Association of Realtors.

This year, the five top ranked projects among a list of 35 possibilities, including those of both midrange and upscale costs, prove that first impressions still matter most. That is, those features that hit buyers from the moment they step from their cars.

At the top of the list is a midrange front door replacement, capturing the highest payback at a national average of 102.1 percent, followed by a midrange garage door replacement, with an 83.9 percent return.  Third place is replacement siding, with a return of 80 percent of its cost, followed by a midrange kitchen remodel that recoups an average of 72.8 percent of costs. Fifth place goes to a wood deck addition that generates a 72.8 percent return.

What was most noteworthy in view of the slow-growing economy is that four of the top five projects were midrange investments aimed at sellers on a budget.  For each project, special advice is offered to make them successful.

For entry door replacement, a 20-gauge steel unit is suggested, including a clear dual pane half glass panel, jambs and an aluminum threshold, along with replacement of the lock set with a new bored lock having a brass or antique brass finish.  The cost would be $1,218, and the resale value is $1,243.

The new garage door would utilize the existing motorized opener, would be un-insulated, single-layer embossed steel with two coats of baked-on paint, galvanized steel hinges and nylon rollers.  Its cost would be $1,291, with a resale value of $1,083.

The type of new siding recommended for replacement is fiber cement, which I personally prefer to vinyl for its look of solidity and a wood grain texture that looks authentic. It is available pre-primed and pre-painted. For 1,250 sq. ft. of siding, including all trim, the cost would be $13,382, with a resale value of $10,707.

Because buyers will always consider the kitchen the most important room in the house, realtors most often recommend at least a minor kitchen remodel where needed.  There are tricks for getting a bigger bang for the buck from a minor upgrade, such as replacing only the fronts of the cabinets and using one of the new laminate countertops that convincingly mimic the look of marble or granite.  But instead of laminate flooring, it is suggested that ceramic tile is a better choice for perceived quality and can be purchased for the same amount of money.  An average cost of $21,695 for a kitchen upgrade can capture $15,790 at resale.

The fifth place remodeling project is a new wood deck addition, which is considered essential rather than discretionary in communities like ours where the majority of homes have outdoor living space.  It is recommended that the deck not be too small (8 ft. x 8 ft.), which would be fairly useless, or too large (spanning the entire back of the house) where it’s difficult to recoup the cost. Recommended is a 16 ft. x 20 ft. deck using pressure-treated wood and joists, supported by 4 ft. x 4 ft. posts anchored to concrete piers.  Including a built-in bench, stairs and complete railing, the average cost would be $10,973, of which $7,986 would be recouped when the house is sold.

The best interpretation of this renewed interest in remodeling is its harbinger of better home sales on the horizon, a nice New Year’s wish for 2011.

 Bill Primavera is a licensed Realtor® (PrimaveraHomes.com), affiliated with Coldwell Banker, and a marketing practitioner (PrimaveraPR.com). Anyone considering selling or buying a home can reach him directly at 914-522-2076.

 

 

Gaze into My Crystal Ball for Real Estate in 2011

 

By Bill Primavera

The Home Guru

Just last week I appeared before the town board of my hometown, which happens to be Yorktown, with a proposal for development of a property now owned by the town.  A comment on the other side of the table was that the town might just wait until the market recovers before selling the property.

When I indicated that it might be a wait of three to four years before the market experienced anything that could be considered a turnaround, one board member looked at me in astonishment and asked me to repeat what I had just said.  

Yes, it seems like an eternity, I admit, especially to people like me who are old enough to have  experienced recessions in the housing market in the past, but not to the level of the Great Recession that we have endured in the past four years.

Somehow those of us who observe, write about or sell real estate have not gotten the message out clearly enough to everybody. Maybe it’s just of passing interest to those who plan to stay in their homes for the foreseeable future and those who feel confident that what goes down must come up again.

Maybe in these crazy times of housing, the best thing is not to look too far ahead. And the near future, according to the industry pundits, seems to have some common agreement and some widely divergent opinions. Let’s survey this past year and look into that crystal ball for the real estate market in 2011.

Most real estate analysts consider the low ebb of the market to be 2009, but 2010 was downright schizoid as home sales rebounded in September with a great boost from the federal tax credit from the months before. That encouraging month was to be followed by a scary October when we knew that the flurry of closings the month before was artificially stimulated. But the slight uptick in November and this month was encouraging as we anticipate the new year.

There are those who say a turnaround to the point of experiencing robust sales and rising home prices may still be a decade away.  But, at the same time, many feel that the bleeding has been stemmed and that we can lick our wounds, faced with the reality that our homes may have fallen in value by 20 to 30 percent in this area.

On Bloomberg News, Nicholas Retsinas, Director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing, predicted earlier last month that mortgage rates won’t increase appreciably in 2011, but once they do, it may happen quickly.  That already has proved inaccurate in that mortgage rates already started to appreciate this month.

Freddie Mac predicted that mortgage rates would climb slightly in 2011 but would remain below 5 percent, but that has proved wrong already. Mortgage Bankers Association got it right by predicting that rates may exceed the 5 percent that Freddie Mac predicted.

While Warren Buffet predicted that the housing market woes would be behind us by 2011, he probably has spoken too soon if compared with other sources. For instance, Forbes has predicted, that home prices may fall another 20 percent in 2011 before there is a nationwide housing bottom. But, in our local market, we can probably better accept the prediction of Moody’s Mark Zandi who says that home prices may continue to decline but not so sharply. He predicts an 8 percent decline through the third quarter of 2011.

However, according to the National Association of Business Economics, it is believed that home prices have already reached bottom and will increase slightly in 2011.

The Wall Street Journal counters the last opinion in an article by Nick Timiraos, projecting that home prices have not yet reached their bottom but will do so in 2011, and that the housing market won’t start to recover until the following year.

But in our area, sales performance in the two categories of lower priced homes and more expensive homes of $1 million and over has improved significantly in the past few months. It’s all very location-based and price-based.

While different quarters may spout divergent opinions, all of them agree that the rebound in housing is based on unemployment which last month edged up to 9.8 percent.

If as a seller, buyer or realtor we’re confused about whether the crystal ball for 2011 is projecting positive or negative energy, we’re in good company when you consider that the behemoths of business and news can offer some opposite viewpoints on the state of housing. 

For instance, Time Magazine’s September 6th front cover featured the headline: “Rethinking Homeownership,” with the subtitle, “Why owning a home may no longer make economic sense.”

But, the following week, The Wall Street Journal responded quickly with a piece by Brett Arends called “10 Reasons to Buy a Home.”  For those who want to think more positively about the benefits of owning a home today, I list the reasons here:

1) You can get a good deal in this buyer’s market; 2) Mortgages are still cheap; 3) You can deduct the mortgage interest from your income taxes; 4) It’s “yours” to do with it what you want; 5) You’ll get a better home than you can with a rental; 6) It offers some inflation protection; 7) It’s risk capital that links part of your portfolio to the long-term growth of the economy; 8) It’s forced savings; 9) There is a lot to choose from right now; and, 10)  Sooner or later the market will get better until demand meets supply.

 So gazing into that crystal ball for 2011 on your own, does it look like worsening clouds ahead, or do you see the silver lining?  I predict the latter.  But, I’ll weigh in at the end of next December.

 Bill Primavera is a licensed Realtor® (PrimaveraHomes.com), affiliated with Coldwell Banker, and a marketing practitioner (PrimaveraPR.com). Anyone considering selling or buying a home can reach him directly at 914-522-2076.